The province’s out-of-province tuition changes will have major impacts on student body composition at anglophone universities, says higher education consultant Alex Usher.

Usher, who is the president of Higher Education Strategy Associates and a McGill alumnus, came on CKUT to walk listeners through last Friday’s policy announcement (A full breakdown is available on his blog.)

He says McGill and Bishop’s will see the biggest changes: “If I had to guess I’d say McGill is going to lose half its out-of-province students.”

“And what will they do? They’ll pivot to more international students.”

Most of the public’s attention has been directed at the hike in base out-of-province tuition, which is set to increase from just under $9,000 to roughly $17,000 starting next fall. The change applies to undergraduate and professional master’s programs.

The government says this $17,000 reflects the amount it costs them for every out-of-province student. Usher thinks these calculations are shortsighted, calling it a “beggar thy neighbour” approach. He says the number of Ontario students coming to Quebec isn’t that different from the amount going in the opposite direction, and wouldn’t be surprised if Ontario retaliated.

“Anything’s a loss if you only look at one side of the ledger. And I think that’s really what the government of Quebec’s been choosing to do.”

The other side of the announcement is a change in the provincial funding formula. In effect, the CAQ are undoing the deregulation policy put in place by the Liberals in 2018. This allowed schools to charge international students what they wanted; in return, the province would not allocate them the per-student funding made available for Canadian students. Now, these students will be back on the books.

“Normally, when people talk about the evils of deregulation, what they’re talking about is, tuition is too high,” Usher says. “This announcement on Friday does nothing to [decrease] the price of tuition for international students.”

“All it’s doing is, it’s saying that institutions should keep less, and governments should keep more.”

The stated aim of the policy is to transfer funds from anglophone schools like McGill to francophone schools in the province, who have less success attracting students from abroad. But according to Usher, the gap between the roughly $3,000 charged to Quebec students and the roughly $9,000 charged to out-of-province students was already going to the government; in effect, $6,000 per out-of-province student that the province could redistribute at will. 

With the tuition hike, that $6,000 is set to more than double – but it remains to be seen how much more this measure will bring to francophone universities if the policy leads to a drastic decline in out-of-province students to Quebec, as Usher is predicting. It’s the changes to international tuition that will likely provide the biggest windfall. 

Either way, the move could end McGill’s cachet for Canadian students, he says.

“I’m third generation McGill on both sides. I don’t think my daughter’s going to be a fourth.”

Listen to the interview below: