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Election 2020: Possibly the longest election day in recent memory

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Masked and standing at the appropriate physical distance, Brenda Bailey and George Heyman campaign in Vancouver - courtesy BC NDP via Flickr (2.0 License)
Roy Hales - CKTZ - Cortes Island • BC | 21-10-2020
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By Roy L Hales

This could become the longest election in BC recent history. Advance voting in our riding began last Thursday, Oct. 15, in the Campbell River Commons. Although Elections BC states it will release a preliminary count after 8 p.m. on election day, Oct. 24,  the final count begins on Nov. 6, and Return Day (i.e.- the official count) is expected to be Monday Nov. 16, provided there aren't complications.

The candidate, clockwise from top right: Alexandra Morton (Green Party), John Twigg (Conservative party), Michele Babchuk (NDP) and Norm Facey (BC Liberals) - submitted photos

We may not know who wins for weeks

This means that unless there is an NDP landslide, we may not know the final result until three weeks after election day.

There are 45,121 registered voters in the North Island riding.

Only 63 per cent of the electorate turned out in the last provincial election.

Statistics from Elections BC show that 10 per cent of the electorate have taken advantage of advanced polls and another 20 per cent, or so, applied for mail in packages.

So what is the turnout going to be like  on Oct. 24?

Cortes Island residents who wish to vote in person may do so between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. at the Cortes Island school.

Quadra Island residents must go to the Community Centre on West Road.

Polling data

The recent poll, by Angus Reid, shows the NDP still 10 points out in front province-wide, but the Liberals and Greens are gaining. (45 per cent, 35 per cent and 16 per cent, respectively)

Canada338 publishes daily projections of every riding in British Columbia.

On Vancouver Island, they currently (Oct. 20) show

  • The NDP with a commanding lead in 8 of the 12 ridings;
  • The Green party ahead in 3, but so narrowly that the final outcome is considered a “toss-up”;
  • And the BC Liberals likely to be reelected in Parksville.

Potential challenges with the projections:

  • They change daily, as new polling data comes in
  • They rely on heavily demographic data and electoral history.

As for our North Island riding, the Times Colonist states, “There was a relatively tight NDP-Liberal race in 2005, but the NDP wins have been more comfortable since then.” That was when Claire Trevana was the NDP candidate. In addition to the Liberals and NDP having a broad base of supporters, Green candidate Alexandra Morton’s profile is much more visible than that of any of her opponents. Will this translate into votes? If so, will there be enough? (Less than 15 per cent of the electorate voted Green in 2017.)

Links of interest:

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