By Roy L Hales
The final count will not be known for another three weeks. However as of 1:58 AM this morning, Elections BC reports that 45.03% of the known electorate voted NDP, 35.41% chose the Liberals and 15.30% the Greens. John Horgan won his majority, NDP candidate Michele Babchuk is our new MLA and the only real surprise was the Green party numbers on Vancouver Island.
The current runner up in North Island riding, Green party candidate Alexandra Morton - courtesy her Facebook Page
Sonia Furstenau and Adam Olsen have both been re-elected.
The Green party has also won its first seat on the Mainland: West Vancouver-Sea-to-Sky.
North Island Riding
Driving around Cortes Island recently, it’s not surprising to learn that there was a three race in North Island. We may lean further to the left than most of British Columbia, but every lawn sign I saw was Green. Alexandra Morton is currently in second place. As she is less than a hundred votes ahead of Liberal candidate Norm Facey, this could change, but it is also a pattern repeated in eight other Island ridings,* as well as Powell River-Sunshine Coast.
Michele Babchuk, NDP candidate and the new MLA for North Island – submitted photo
The rest of Vancouver Island and Powell River
- Nanaimo-North Cowichan, Chris Istace trails Doug Routley (NDP) by 1,001 votes.
- Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Nicole Duncan trails Murray Rankin (NDP) by 1,647.
- Victoria-Beacon Hill, Jenn Neilson trails Jenn Neilson (NDP) by 1,777.
- Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Kim Darwin trails Nicholas Simons (NDP) by 2,166.
- Victoria-Swan Lake, Annemieke Holthuis trails Rob Fleming (NDP) by 2,739
- Esquimalt-Mtechsin, Andy MacKinnion trails Mitzi Dean (NDP) by 3,136
- Nanaimo, Lia Versaevel trails Sheila Malcolmson (NDP) by 3,857.
- Langford-Juan de Fuca, Gord Baird trails Premier John Horgan (NDP) by 3,887.
- Mid Island-Pacific Rim, Evan Jolicoeur trails Josie Osbourne (NDP) by 4,537.
Potential for a Green shift
While it seems unlikely that the Green Party will take any of these seats from the NDP after the final count, the Liberal party finished second in most of these ridings during the 2017 provincial election.
This is not the first election where the Green party has shown promise. In the weeks prior to the last federal election, 338Canada’s projections showed them leading in four Vancouver Island ridings. This melted down to two on election day, which has been the pattern up until now.
This time, the numbers suggesting potential for a Green shift come from election results.
One of the questions on a recent Angus Reid poll was what would be your second choice?
The Green Party was 20% ahead of second place NDP. (Greens 34%; NDP 14%; Liberals 10%; “Another party” 18%; Undecided 22%)
If there is a marked Green shift in the next election, or the one after that, most analysts expect it to be strongest on Vancouver Island.
Complied from various sources by Roy L Hales
Complied from various sources by Roy L Hales
Compiled from various sources. A number of ridings went through name and boundary changes that are not indicated. Example: John Horgan was elected in Malahat-Juan de Fuca (2005), which became Juan de Fuca (2009) and Langford-Juan de Fuca since the 2017 – Roy L Hales
Complied from various sources by Roy L Hales
Links of interest:
- (Elections BC) 2020 Provincial General Election Preliminary Voting Results by Candidate
- (Elections BC) 2020 Provincial General Election Preliminary Voting Results by Party
Footnote
*The exceptions are Parksville-Qualicum, Courtenay-Comox, and Saanich South. The Liberals are currently leading in the former riding, which is too close to call, and second place in the other two.
Top photo credit: Premier John Horgan campaigning in Vancouver – courtesy BC NDP via Flickr (CC BY SA, 2.0 License)
Candidates in North Island riding - submitted by candidates