{"id":54568,"date":"2021-07-28T12:08:12","date_gmt":"2021-07-28T16:08:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/canada-info.ca\/?p=54568"},"modified":"2021-08-02T10:27:43","modified_gmt":"2021-08-02T14:27:43","slug":"in-a-level-4-drought-what-lies-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canada-info.ca\/en\/in-a-level-4-drought-what-lies-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Cortes Island’s Level 4 drought: what lies ahead?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cortes Island<\/a> is in the midst of a Level 4 drought.<\/p>\n

There have been worse dry periods in the instrumental records, much worse according to a University of Victoria study of tree ring data, and most likely more severe droughts in the years to come.<\/p>\n

\u201cSummer is very typically a very dry time of year for the Island, as well as for the Gulf Islands. The problem is that because we didn\u2019t get the Spring rains, we\u2019re starting at a level that is lower than what it would be within a typical year,\u201d\u00a0 said\u00a0Ashlee Jollymore<\/a>, a Hydrologist with the Water Management Branch in Victoria<\/p>\n

Shallow wells<\/h2>\n

Some of Cortes Island\u2019s shallow well owners are approaching a critical point.<\/p>\n

John Preston describes the situation in terms of the Island\u2019s aquifer.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen we moved to Cortes Island, 18 years ago, a dear architect friend who looked over this property for us said, \u2018you will need water.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI said, \u2018okay. we\u2019ll drill a well.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cHe said, \u2018Please do not drill a well. Have a high quality surface well. Every well we drill now ultimately weakens our long term water aspect.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Preston agreed and now has a 27\u2019 deep surface well, but the water situation appears to be worsening.<\/p>\n

The marshland above his property used to remain swamp all year round; now it is dry during the summer.<\/p>\n

Preston has been dealing with water shortages every summer for the past five years. This is the worst. The water shortages he usually deals with in late August is already here.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are four weeks early in our water deprivation and there is a chance our water deprivation will go longer into the Fall than usual,\u201d he said. \u201cWe may have to close down our business.\u201d<\/p>\n

He has two choices: drilling a well (and hope the aquifer won\u2019t fail) or moving to a rainwater catchment system.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

\"A<\/a>

Schematic of an aquifer showing confined zones, groundwater travel times, a spring and a well from US Geological circular via Wikipedia (Public Domain).<\/p><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Rainwater catchment<\/h2>\n

His friends Kristen Schofield-Sweet and John Shook have been dependent on a catchment system for 31 years.<\/p>\n

\u201cOf course at that time, we didn\u2019t know about climate change or that rainwater would become an issue. We are, if anything, more pleased now that we have that system, rather than feeling anxious and alarmed that somehow we\u2019ve misjudged and are going to run out of water,\u201d said Schofield Sweet.<\/p>\n

One of their small concrete cisterns is dry and the water level is low in the second, but their big 3,000 gallon cistern is untouched.<\/p>\n

The cisterns were partially dug into the earth, which means the water is always cold. As the system is gravity fed, it is also impervious to power shortages. It supplies all of their needs except drinking water, which they obtain at the Gorge Marina.<\/p>\n

Though most of eastern Vancouver Island is now at drought Level 4, there are places where it is only Level 2.<\/p>\n

Campbell River is\u00a0among them<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cCampbell River is sort of a [challenge] to assign because a lot of it is fed by a big lake or it is regulated,\" as Hydrologist Ashlee Jollymore explained. \"The John Hart Dam is on that system. So it is a really tough one to say how dry it is because a lot of those levels are not natural, they are regulated by that dam system. The one that we do look at is the Oyster River, a little bit further to the south, that\u2019s just unregulated flows. And is at Level 4.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n
\n

\"A<\/a>

BC's Drought Levels. Graph by Roy L Hales, adapted from appendix 1,\u00a0British Columbia Drought and Water Scarcity Response Plan.<\/p><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Climate change<\/h2>\n

Vancouver Island has gone through drier periods in the past. The worst droughts in the historical record set the bar for drought Level 5. However, the climate is changing, so CKTZ news asked Jollymore what can we expect in the future.<\/p>\n

She described the projections for precipitation as a really tough challenge, both in the short term and over longer periods of time.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat climate change scientists are telling us is that instances of precipitation could be more chaotic in the future \u2026 We may get the same amount of rain, but it could come as a few storms as opposed to smaller storms over a longer period of time. Just to say, the projections for precipitation come with a lot of uncertainty relative to the projections for, say temperature,\u201d said Jollymore.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

\"A<\/a>

The latest drought levels on Vancouver Island. Map adapted from Drought Levels Map at the BC Drought Information Portal by Roy L Hales<\/p><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

The Mega-drought theory<\/h2>\n

A few years ago, a University of Victoria\u00a0study of tree ring data<\/a>\u00a0found that BC has gone through 16 droughts\u00a0exceeding anything in the more recent instrumental record.<\/p>\n

One of the study\u2019s co-authors, Dr. Bethany Coulthard, believes we are underestimating the potential impact of a mega-drought.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you look at how severe droughts can get and then you add climate change and land use change on top of that, it would be reasonable to expect that when one of these extreme events does happen it will be more severe than anything that has happened in the past 350 years. We will almost certainly experience droughts worse than last year in the decades to come,\" she explained in the study.<\/p>\n

Jollymore was familiar with the study.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think when we get into the mega-drought situation, what we\u2019re really looking at is multi-year precipitation deficit. So multiple years in which we don\u2019t get the rain, or the snowpack in the areas that need a snowpack, and that persists over a long period of time,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf those precipitation deficits continue to persist over the winter, into next year and the year after \u2013 that\u2019s when I think those mega-drought definitions kick in. Hopefully we don\u2019t get there.\u201d<\/p>\n

This may be happening in California, but not yet in British Columbia, she added.<\/p>\n

\n
\n

\"A<\/a>

Tree ring samples. Photo courtesy Dr. Bethany Coulthard.<\/p><\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Links of Interest<\/h2>\n