{"id":16693,"date":"2020-10-25T11:49:59","date_gmt":"2020-10-25T15:49:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/canada-info.ca\/?p=16693"},"modified":"2020-10-25T16:14:42","modified_gmt":"2020-10-25T20:14:42","slug":"election-2020-green-party-numbers-on-vancouver-island","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canada-info.ca\/en\/election-2020-green-party-numbers-on-vancouver-island\/","title":{"rendered":"Election 2020: Green Party Numbers on Vancouver Island"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Roy L Hales<\/p>\n

The final count will not be known for another three weeks. However\u00a0as of 1:58 AM this morning<\/a>,\u00a0 Elections BC reports that 45.03% of the known electorate voted\u00a0NDP<\/a>, 35.41% chose the\u00a0Liberals<\/a>\u00a0and 15.30% the\u00a0Greens<\/a>. John Horgan won his majority, NDP candidate\u00a0Michele Babchuk<\/a>\u00a0is our new MLA and the only real surprise was the Green party numbers on Vancouver Island.<\/p>\n

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The current runner up in North Island riding, Green party candidate Alexandra Morton - courtesy her Facebook Page<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Sonia Furstenau<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Adam Olsen<\/a>\u00a0have both been re-elected.<\/p>\n

The Green party has also won its first seat on the Mainland: West Vancouver-Sea-to-Sky.<\/p>\n

North Island Riding<\/h2>\n

Driving around\u00a0Cortes Island<\/a>\u00a0recently, it\u2019s not surprising to learn that there was a three race in North Island. We may lean further to the left than most of British Columbia, but every lawn sign I saw was Green.\u00a0Alexandra Morton<\/a>\u00a0is currently in second place. As she is\u00a0less than a hundred votes ahead of Liberal candidate Norm Facey<\/a>, this could change, but it is also a pattern repeated in eight other Island ridings,* as well as Powell River-Sunshine Coast.<\/p>\n

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Michele Babchuk, NDP candidate and the new MLA for North Island \u2013 submitted photo<\/p><\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The rest of Vancouver Island and Powell River<\/h2>\n
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  1. Nanaimo-North Cowichan<\/strong>, Chris Istace trails\u00a0Doug Routley<\/a>\u00a0(NDP) by 1,001 votes.<\/li>\n
  2. Oak Bay-Gordon Head<\/strong>, Nicole Duncan trails\u00a0Murray Rankin<\/a>\u00a0(NDP) by 1,647.<\/li>\n
  3. Victoria-Beacon Hill<\/strong>, Jenn Neilson trails Jenn Neilson (NDP) by 1,777.<\/li>\n
  4. Powell River-Sunshine Coas<\/strong>t, Kim Darwin trails Nicholas Simons (NDP) by 2,166.<\/li>\n
  5. Victoria-Swan Lake,<\/strong>\u00a0Annemieke Holthuis trails\u00a0Rob Fleming<\/a>\u00a0(NDP)\u00a0 by 2,739<\/li>\n
  6. Esquimalt-Mtechsin<\/strong>, Andy MacKinnion trails Mitzi Dean (NDP) by 3,136<\/li>\n
  7. Nanaimo<\/strong>, Lia Versaevel trails\u00a0Sheila Malcolmson<\/a>\u00a0(NDP) by 3,857.<\/li>\n
  8. Langford-Juan de Fuca<\/strong>, Gord Baird trails Premier John Horgan (NDP) by 3,887.<\/li>\n
  9. Mid Island-Pacific Rim,<\/strong>\u00a0Evan Jolicoeur trails Josie Osbourne (NDP) by 4,537.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Potential for a Green shift<\/h2>\n

    While it seems unlikely that the Green Party will take any of these seats from the NDP after the final count, the Liberal party finished second in most of these ridings during the 2017 provincial election.<\/p>\n

    This is not the first election where the Green party has shown promise. In the weeks prior to the last federal election,\u00a0338Canada<\/a>\u2019s projections showed them\u00a0leading in four Vancouver Island ridings<\/a>. This\u00a0melted down to two on election day<\/a>, which has been the pattern up until now.<\/p>\n

    This time, the numbers suggesting potential for a Green shift come from election results.<\/p>\n

    One of the questions on a\u00a0recent Angus Reid poll<\/a>\u00a0was what would be your second choice?<\/p>\n

    The Green Party was 20% ahead of second place NDP. (Greens 34%; NDP 14%; Liberals 10%; \u201cAnother party\u201d 18%; Undecided 22%)<\/p>\n

    If there is a marked Green shift in the next election, or the one after that, most analysts expect it to be strongest on Vancouver Island.<\/p>\n

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    Complied from various sources by Roy L Hales<\/p><\/div>\n

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    Complied from various sources by Roy L Hales<\/p><\/div>\n

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    Compiled from various sources. A number of ridings went through name and boundary changes that are not indicated. Example: John Horgan was elected in Malahat-Juan de Fuca (2005), which became Juan de Fuca (2009) and Langford-Juan de Fuca since the 2017 \u2013 Roy L Hales<\/p><\/div>\n

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    Complied from various sources by Roy L Hales<\/p><\/div>\n

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    Links of interest:<\/p>\n